[h=1]Keys for U.S. to beat Belgium[/h][h=3]What the USMNT must to do advance past the round of 16[/h]
By Adrian Melville | ESPN Insider
The euphoria that came along with advancing out of the "group of death" has provided a large boost to the United States. The team now moves on to play a young, talented Belgium team in the round of 16.Belgium has talent all over the field, and a roster including Eden Hazard, Vincent Kompany and Thibaut Courtois that's good enough to intimidate any team in the tournament. However, Belgium has also yet to be tested to its full potential, and has struggled to collectively find an offensive rhythm in both World Cup qualifying games and during the tournament itself.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has proved that it can remain competitive with the best teams in the world for an entire game, but has not fully been able to impose its will on any particular opponent in the World Cup so far. Belgium is not invincible, but there are certain aspects of this round-of-16 matchup that the U.S. must take advantage of in order to move on.
Here are my keys to the U.S. advancing past Belgium and into the quarterfinal round:
One-on-one defending
Belgium managed just four combined goals against Group H opponents Algeria, Russia and South Korea, and at times looked disjointed in its attacks. The team also underwhelmed in UEFA World Cup qualifying with just 18 goals scored in its 10 games (Germany led UEFA with 36 goals).
Still, Belgium is a team that can score in bunches, and is aggressive in running at defenders in the attacking third. Belgium attackers will look to dribble past the U.S. side more than Germany did. As such, one-on-one defending will be critical for the United States if the Yanks are to slow down the opposition.
ESPN Stats & InfomationMap of Belgium's take-ons in attacking third for 2014 World Cup, left, and Germany's take-ons in attacking third, right.
During the group stage, Belgium led the World Cup with 50 take-ons (defined as a play in which the player controlling the ball tries to beat a defender) in the attacking third, while Germany had just 23. The most dangerous dribblers for Belgium are Hazard and Dries Mertens out on the flanks. Both players will look to occupy U.S. full-backs DaMarcus Beasley and Fabian Johnson in Belgium's attack. Hazard will likely play on the same side as Johnson, and so Johnson will need to communicate with the midfield trio of Jermaine Jones, Michael Bradley and Kyle Beckerman in order to avoid letting Hazard, an impact left-sided player, take control of the game.
The good news for Beasley and Johnson is that while each is tasked with defending a world-class dribbler, Belgium's outside backs are essentially converted central defenders, and thus do not pose much of a threat. Typically, Belgium manager Marc Wilmots will use Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen at right- and left-back, respectively, despite both players being more suited to central defensive positions. This lack of options means that the U.S. needs to focus on isolating Hazard and Martens on the outside, and force them to dribble into areas where they have no support. In doing so, the team can quickly transition into the attack after winning the ball, and try to exploit any gaps in the Belgium back line.
Win the central midfield
In the last two group games, the U.S. was particularly adept at attacking in wide areas. The 4-3-3 formations that both Portugal and Germany used against the U.S. provided room for outside backs like Johnson and Beasley to get forward without being tracked by the opposing striker.
This will not be the case against Belgium, which generally plays with two holding midfielders in order to cover the space that the team's attackers don't want to defend. This added midfielder means that both Belgium and the U.S. will have two holding midfielders and one attacking midfielder in central positions. The winner of this battle will help dictate which team seizes control of the match.
The central midfield combination of Beckerman, Jones and Bradley will need to be productive on defense and maintain possession. Jones in particular has emerged as an attacking presence in this World Cup. In concert with Bradley, the U.S. virtually always has a player in support of Clint Dempsey's role at target striker.
ESPN Stats & InfomationHeat map of Michael Bradley's touches in 2014 World Cup, left, and Jermaine Jones' touches, right.
While Beckerman's positioning stays above the back four, Bradley and Jones have been a little more aggressive in joining the attack. While just 29.3 percent of Beckerman's touches have been in the attacking half so far in the tournament, Bradley is at 38.8 percent and Jones leads the trio with 59.3 percent.
The responsibility of these three players in both the attack and the defense is not entirely different from the roles of Axel Witsel, Marouane Fellaini and Kevin De Bruyne in Belgium's central midfield. Witsel is Belgium's most defensively aware midfielder, while Fellaini and De Bruyne are constantly pushing into the attack to combine with the team's talented wide players in the attack.
In order to win this battle, the U.S. midfield must be compact in its defensive spacing, and work closely with its forwards to find quick transition outlets when Belgium turns the ball over. As mentioned, Belgium is more likely to put itself in dribbling situations in the attack, and many of those situations will involve the team's best dribblers in wide positions. If the U.S. can defuse those situations, it will be important for Jones, Bradley and Beckerman to find open spaces and gain possession -- those three players are the core of how the ball gets distributed for the U.S. This ability to distribute becomes even more important if striker Jozy Altidore is able to return to the lineup, as he can provide an extra outlet for the central midfield with deep runs into Belgium's defensive third.
Outlook
The U.S. currently holds a 41 percent chance of advancing, according to the latest Soccer Power Index projections, and is certainly capable of pulling out a win in this knockout-round matchup. However, the team will need to be excellent in its one-on-one defending, and also be able to build through the middle of the field in order to advance past a highly touted Belgium team. If the Americans can get good production from their outside backs, along with a strong central midfield display from Jones, Beckerman and Bradley, they will put themselves in an excellent position to move on to the quarterfinal round.
By Adrian Melville | ESPN Insider
The euphoria that came along with advancing out of the "group of death" has provided a large boost to the United States. The team now moves on to play a young, talented Belgium team in the round of 16.Belgium has talent all over the field, and a roster including Eden Hazard, Vincent Kompany and Thibaut Courtois that's good enough to intimidate any team in the tournament. However, Belgium has also yet to be tested to its full potential, and has struggled to collectively find an offensive rhythm in both World Cup qualifying games and during the tournament itself.
Meanwhile, the U.S. has proved that it can remain competitive with the best teams in the world for an entire game, but has not fully been able to impose its will on any particular opponent in the World Cup so far. Belgium is not invincible, but there are certain aspects of this round-of-16 matchup that the U.S. must take advantage of in order to move on.
Here are my keys to the U.S. advancing past Belgium and into the quarterfinal round:
One-on-one defending
Belgium managed just four combined goals against Group H opponents Algeria, Russia and South Korea, and at times looked disjointed in its attacks. The team also underwhelmed in UEFA World Cup qualifying with just 18 goals scored in its 10 games (Germany led UEFA with 36 goals).
Still, Belgium is a team that can score in bunches, and is aggressive in running at defenders in the attacking third. Belgium attackers will look to dribble past the U.S. side more than Germany did. As such, one-on-one defending will be critical for the United States if the Yanks are to slow down the opposition.
During the group stage, Belgium led the World Cup with 50 take-ons (defined as a play in which the player controlling the ball tries to beat a defender) in the attacking third, while Germany had just 23. The most dangerous dribblers for Belgium are Hazard and Dries Mertens out on the flanks. Both players will look to occupy U.S. full-backs DaMarcus Beasley and Fabian Johnson in Belgium's attack. Hazard will likely play on the same side as Johnson, and so Johnson will need to communicate with the midfield trio of Jermaine Jones, Michael Bradley and Kyle Beckerman in order to avoid letting Hazard, an impact left-sided player, take control of the game.
The good news for Beasley and Johnson is that while each is tasked with defending a world-class dribbler, Belgium's outside backs are essentially converted central defenders, and thus do not pose much of a threat. Typically, Belgium manager Marc Wilmots will use Toby Alderweireld and Jan Vertonghen at right- and left-back, respectively, despite both players being more suited to central defensive positions. This lack of options means that the U.S. needs to focus on isolating Hazard and Martens on the outside, and force them to dribble into areas where they have no support. In doing so, the team can quickly transition into the attack after winning the ball, and try to exploit any gaps in the Belgium back line.
Win the central midfield
In the last two group games, the U.S. was particularly adept at attacking in wide areas. The 4-3-3 formations that both Portugal and Germany used against the U.S. provided room for outside backs like Johnson and Beasley to get forward without being tracked by the opposing striker.
This will not be the case against Belgium, which generally plays with two holding midfielders in order to cover the space that the team's attackers don't want to defend. This added midfielder means that both Belgium and the U.S. will have two holding midfielders and one attacking midfielder in central positions. The winner of this battle will help dictate which team seizes control of the match.
The central midfield combination of Beckerman, Jones and Bradley will need to be productive on defense and maintain possession. Jones in particular has emerged as an attacking presence in this World Cup. In concert with Bradley, the U.S. virtually always has a player in support of Clint Dempsey's role at target striker.
While Beckerman's positioning stays above the back four, Bradley and Jones have been a little more aggressive in joining the attack. While just 29.3 percent of Beckerman's touches have been in the attacking half so far in the tournament, Bradley is at 38.8 percent and Jones leads the trio with 59.3 percent.
The responsibility of these three players in both the attack and the defense is not entirely different from the roles of Axel Witsel, Marouane Fellaini and Kevin De Bruyne in Belgium's central midfield. Witsel is Belgium's most defensively aware midfielder, while Fellaini and De Bruyne are constantly pushing into the attack to combine with the team's talented wide players in the attack.
In order to win this battle, the U.S. midfield must be compact in its defensive spacing, and work closely with its forwards to find quick transition outlets when Belgium turns the ball over. As mentioned, Belgium is more likely to put itself in dribbling situations in the attack, and many of those situations will involve the team's best dribblers in wide positions. If the U.S. can defuse those situations, it will be important for Jones, Bradley and Beckerman to find open spaces and gain possession -- those three players are the core of how the ball gets distributed for the U.S. This ability to distribute becomes even more important if striker Jozy Altidore is able to return to the lineup, as he can provide an extra outlet for the central midfield with deep runs into Belgium's defensive third.
Outlook
The U.S. currently holds a 41 percent chance of advancing, according to the latest Soccer Power Index projections, and is certainly capable of pulling out a win in this knockout-round matchup. However, the team will need to be excellent in its one-on-one defending, and also be able to build through the middle of the field in order to advance past a highly touted Belgium team. If the Americans can get good production from their outside backs, along with a strong central midfield display from Jones, Beckerman and Bradley, they will put themselves in an excellent position to move on to the quarterfinal round.
